Monday, November 07, 2011

No more blog updates

Last update for a while: Breakout above SPX 1235 has put my weekly back on a buy signal. So the next logical move is a challenge of the 1370 highs.

I am closing down this blog indefinitely. I have too much trading responsibilities to make timely blog updates. Besides, the intellectual stimulation of analyzing the markets isn't there anymore, to me. I have reached a point in my trading career where i feel that analyzing markets and trading the markets have got nothing to do with each other.

Analyzing the markets is a intellectual game, trying to determine the most probabilistic path based on a set of parameters. Ascertaining the future with precision is no guarantee of trading success, as the markets can gyrate wildly before reaching the intended target, in the process stopping out a good trade. Conversely, lack of future insight is not an impediment to trading success. Good trading is all about simplicity. Knowing the trend, finding a spot to enter, having a reasonable stop and taking profits along the way and recharging when out of positions.

Good trading is not about good charting either. Good charting is more of artistic work, while good trading is more like performance sports. Pouring over charts into the wee hours of midnight and analyzing ten thousand market indicators is a charting obsession. Trading is all about execution. Simple TA techniques based on systems with minimal degrees of freedom can do the job. As for me, mere price candles are enough to trade any market - Yes, absolutely no indicators, not even a moving average or a trendline. In fact i know a few people who don't even look at the charts, just plug-in numbers into a Excel worksheet at the end of the day and trade far more effectively than those who watch every price tick and countless indicators all day long.

Many enter the trading arena with a false notion that there's something mysterious element about the markets, which can be unlocked with technical analysis or fundamental analysis and the futile search for the holy grail begins. This constant search for perfection and some holy grail formula or indicator is what keeps a trader obsessed with charts and technical analysis, taking away the focus from the trade execution. I am no way dismissing the utility of technical analysis, but i think technical analysis plays a very small role in trading success than it's given credit for. Proper trade management and execution is far more important. When the whole world is melting down and your system gives a buy, it requires enormous faith in one's system and mental conditioning and discipline to take that trade. It's much more difficult than pouring over charts and making calls and prophesying about the future.

Trading based on questionable fundamental information or widely known fundamentals is even worse and far more a dangerous game. They belong to the message boards, for folks with day jobs, looking for evening entertainment.

Anyway my point is that charting and technical analysis do not simulate me as much as it did in my early years. My trading responsibilities are growing and i am focusing more on trade management and money management. Making timely updates on blog becomes an obligation and i do not want to be tied down by any obligations, given that i have other things to worry about.

I won't be deleting the blog as i have nothing to hide. There has been some spectacular calls made by me as well as some spectacular failures. It was a great intellectual journey for me. In life priorities and perspectives change and one moves on.

I will try to post some stuff on when time permits. Even that would be minimal, going forward.

Good luck trading !

Sunday, August 07, 2011

Long Term Sell

On Aug 3, my system triggered a long term sell signal and now S&P enters a bear market based on that signal. I have not updated my blog for a while. I posted the signal in real-time when S&P broke 1249 on Aug 3 at traders-talk. More later....

Long term Sell on S&P