Monday, March 30, 2009

9 month cycle cresting !

My last call for a 9 month cycle top was back in Aug 2008.

We promptly made a 9 month bottom in Nov 08.

Based on the above phasing, we are due for a cycle top here late March to 1st week of April. Price topping window should be SPX 830-870. We already have tagged the lower end of the projection. Whether we tag the upper end, needs to be seen.

The real acid test for the IT bottom comes here. My own opinion is/has been that we have not seen an IT bottom and this was a ST rally in the IT downtrend. My expectation is for break of the recent lows and head to high 500s on the SPX. I am expecting this 9 month bottom to come late July - early Aug. If for some reason, the 9 month bottom holds above the March 09 lows, then those calling for a March IT bottom would be right. But i seriously doubt it.

Trends : Both the hourly and the daily are uptrending at this point. A break below SPX 766 will crack both the hourly and daily trends.

Good luck !