Thursday, May 10, 2007

Daily momentum sell at the close

My system generated a momentum sell on the daily charts today.

Last time i commented, i had a VST bias into SPX cash 1493, which got tagged today. If the uptrend on the hourly charts were intact, then we would have seen a powerful rally out of that pivot. The fact that the pivot did not hold and the daily momentum kicked into a "Sell", means, this is more than a VST correction. So i would not be a buyer here. Not yet !

Now the million dollar question is whether this is a ST correction or an IT correction. The ST pivot on the SPX cash comes around 1474-1478 area, which should be the focal point for the daily trend traders to go long. Again, we'll evaluate if and when we get there. If the 1474-78 area cracks on a daily closing basis, then it would blossom into a full blown IT sell, which would target the SPX 1420-30 area. Again, i don't pretend to have a crystal ball that far. So taking one baby step at a time.....

Also of interest is that the Nasdaq MCO broke below the late April lows. Both the 5% and the 10% trends on the Nasdaq MCO are now below zero, which is also suggesting that this is more than a VST drop. The NYSE MCO is barely holding above the late april lows and if it follows the Nasdaq, the next day or two should see the NYSE MCO taking out those lows.

Monday, May 07, 2007

No top of importance in sight

Sorry i coudn't update my blog since April 23, since i had some personal preoccupations.

My April 23 forecast for a drop to 1452 was invalidated by the market action. I was wrong !. Every day the market throws new information. Only a stubborn ego-maniac analyst can afford to ignore such information. Right now the market says that we have not seen any top of importance. So as a trend trader, the next area of importance seems to SPX 1493, which should be the area where a hourly swing/trend trader need to focus on going long. For VST traders, today has a downward bias for a drop into SPX 1493.