Friday, February 29, 2008

LT and IT update

My LT indicators remain in a bear zone and i eventually expect SPX to tag SPX 1170 +/- 20 points. No change there.

The IT picture here is very interesting to say the least. I have two counts here.

The first count says we have topped in wave X and about to commence the next big leg down. If this were true, then we should take out the MCO lows of 1/22/08, which is not very far below. My only concern with this count is that the upside wave X did not even tag the mid-line of the bollinger bands on the weekly charts. That's very unusual even for a bear market and is characteristic of an extremely weak market.

My second count says we are close to concluding wave b of X and then another run-up to SPX 1420-30 area (wave c of X) to tag the mid-line of the Bollinger bands on the weekly charts, before the big leg commences. Note that both the NYSE breadth and Vol MCOs took out the 2/22 lows. So it's very likely even with this count that we see further weakness down into SPX 1310-1316area, before the wave c of X begins.

Which count Jose ? I have no idea at this point unless we get more information. E-waves are roadmaps and not trading signals. Watch your hourly indicators for bottoming action before jumping long, even if you beleive in the bullish count. Hourly is decisively down at this point and no buy signals there. If you truly beleive that we are headed to SPX 1430 area, then why the hurry to catch a falling knife ? Wait for a hourly buy which could come 15-20 points above. Missing the bottom 15 points ain't shabby if you are looking for a 100 point trade. Good luck !