Saturday, September 27, 2008

IT/LT bottom update

I posted last week that we made a LT/IT bottom and a multi-month rally lasting 6-8 months should begin. Many are still calling for Oct lows. I will have to respectfully disagree with them. What we saw was historical off-the-chart volume at the lows. It just blows my mind ! Then looking at the NYSE vol MCO, we had a kick off move on the MCO off the lows. That combined with the price action out of the bottom says in no uncertain terms, that we have put in a major bottom here. Now if we go up and take out SPX 1265, that would be the confirmation that a new uptrend has started. The kickoff move out of this bottom has been bigger, faster and violent than of 1/23, 3/17 or 7/08. That means we are starting a wave which is "higher in degree" than any of those waves that emerged out of 1/23, 3/17 or 7/08. Consequently the time and size of this wave should also be bigger than any of those ST moves. I posted the projections for this wave B in my previous post and i see no change to that.

Now as for the sentiment, this is by far the worse LT sentiment that i can recall in a while. The news of death of America is once again exaggerated. As i said last week, the asian regional newspaper journalists who think Freddie Mac is a hambuger, also have realized the impending death of America. When you get historical volume and a kickoff move on the NYSE Vol Osc out of this kind of extreme sentiment, it can only be a major IT/LT bottom. Time will tell...