Saturday, September 01, 2007

A swing trader's case

I am expecting a selloff next week and it should start from the get-go on Tuesday. My expectation is for a test or a slight break of the 8/28 lows. 30-min, 60-min, 120-min momentum were all flashing warning signs on Friday, with 30-min already on a sell. Had it not been for the long weekend, i would shorted the close for a swing trade.

The bullish argument certainly has merit here. We have seen that massive breadth spike on the NYSE MCO. Now the NYSE 5% and 10% components are above zero. The weekly CCI is above -100. As of the close of this week, we got "All clear" signal for IT longs for the first time since 8/16 lows.

Bullish argument is different and bullish cheerleading and talking positions that happen on message boards are different. Once a weekly buy gets generated, we don't go to the sky directly, like many to-da-moon theorists opine. There are many hiccups on the way and some very scary. Markets are perverse. The first buy on any timeframe generally resolves in the opposite direction. It's for a simple reason, cuz every amateur joe is aware of that and every guru and newsletter writers keep pounding on those facts. That's what causes the amateur traders to come and regurgitate some popular guru opinion on message boards. Now guess what the pros do. They fade that common perception, instill fear by scary selloff, get everyone lean on the wrong side, make them disbeleive their gurus, and then take off.

Any professional swing trader worth his salt would not base his ST trades on IT indicators. One has to trade the timeframe of one's chosing. What's the trade for a ST swing trader (houry swing trader) here ? - IMO it's a unwavering short, unless there is a monster gap-up on Tuesday. So barring a big gap-up on Tuesday, i will be shorting this market for a swing trade.

Will try to update my blog on a regular basis going forward.

Good luck everyone.