Friday, May 16, 2008

Weekly trends

I will try to post some weekly trends from my position trading system here going forward, once a week. These are multi-week position trades which require 5-8% stop aiming for 10-15% or higher profits.


Gold never entered a bear trend on the weekly charts, despite the big correction off of the March 08 highs. The weekly 8 EMA continues to reside above the 34 EMA. Now i have a fresh buy on GOLD as of this week's close. So essentially it's a trend continuation buy. The target for Gold is about 970-980 or higher. I took a position in GLD at 89.

Silver dissapointed from entering a weekly buy. Missed by a narrow margin. Not sure if that's a red flag for Gold or if it's just lagging behind gold. No positions here.


The Euro is on a counterend sell i.e a correction on the weekly charts. The 8 EMA continues to resides above the 34 EMA and the weekly trend reamins up. But we marginally failed to get a continuation buy on Euro, thus putting it still in the correction camp. Again whether this non-confirmation remains a red flag for Gold remains to be seen. Interestingly the ETF FXE issued a buy. Maybe the ETF folks are over enthusiastic here. We shall see..

No positions here.


XLF remains on a weekly continuation sell from last week. XLF needs to take out 28 to invalidate this signal. I remain long SKF from 101 last week.

The weekly trend continues to remain down on the S&P. 8 EMA below 34 EMA. We are in a large correction in a downtrend. But a couple of more weeks of upside action could turn the weekly trend up. ST continues to confound me. Everyday looks like a top, only to be taken out by a surreptitious slow rally. Typical of a trending market. My system says Friday was a ST top, but again the late day OPEX shenanigan put a damper on that signal. Next weeks things should get clearer.

No positions here. Only daytrading.


WOW. The strong uptrend on weekly charts continues. DUG seems to be the darling of the masses, just like QID was in 2006, making fresh lows day after day. But the enthusiasm of the OIL bears remains unfazed. It remains to be seen, if finally the OIL bears get the much needed correction or just get blown out by the charging bull. No easy trades in this market at all.

No positions here.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

IT and ST update

In my IT update on April 12, i was looking for an SPX target in the 1400-1420 range. On April 22, i thought we made a top at 1395. But i was wrong. The market inched higher into 1422 area. Now based on Friday's action, we have cracked the ST uptrend from the 4/15 lows. My ST system (daily) is now on a sell, which means i will be shorting rallies here.

Intermediate term has two scenarios here.

Scenario 1: Now the key IT pivot here is SPX 1324. If 1324 is taken out even on a intraday basis, the IT uptrend is over and we should head down and crack the 3/17/08 lows.

Scenario 2: If the daily charts gets oversold and turns back up without breaking 1324, then we should head higher in another upleg to about 1450-60 area.

LT we remain in a bear market, all this huge rallies not withstanding.

LT - Down
IT - Up
ST - Down