Wednesday, October 24, 2007

LT market thoughts - Update 2

Last i updated my LT thoughts here

While the overall outlook and direction of the long term hasn't changed a bit, i will have to change the labelling a bit. LT remains very bullish at least until late 2008-2009 as i have been saying for the last couple of years.

Intially my guess was the large correction from the July 2007 top was a X-wave. If it was a X-wave, SPX should not have made new ATH after the Aug 07 bottom, rather should have made a lower high vis-a-vis the July 07 highs and made a trip down to about SPX 1320. That would have made it structurally look like a wave-X and also would have satisfied the price and time requirements. Now the entire correction from July 07 to Aug 07 looks so small in terms of both price and time (relative to the entire rally from March 2003 to July 2007), one can conclude that rally from June 2006 is extending. That means the intermedite wave C of Primary degree wave C is still extending. So to put it simply Aug 07 was a wave 2 bottom of the intermediate term wave C from June 2006. As simple as that. If it's not clear, take a look at the chart.

Now that brings us to the projections. If wave C = 1.618 * wave A, then we should achieve SPX 1830 by late 2008 to early 2009. SPX 1850 also happens to be the 1.38 times Fib extension target for the entire decline from 2000-2002. So we should top the bull market from 2003, somewhere in the vicinity of SPX 1830-1850. Now that's the minimum projection. It could be higher if the waves extend. I will update as time goes by. By 2009, most of the bearish caucus would have been worn out both psychologically and financially, paving the way for a huge bear market in Primary degree wave C.

Again, since we are now dealing with wave iii of an intermediate wave 3, it ain't gonna be a pony ride. It's gonna be a bucking bronco, with scary volatility. The ST volatility cannot be predicted with just e-waves alone, but by supplementing it with various ST technical tools. But overall the LT direction remains up and is very bullish at this point, based on the wave structure.

My last LT update can be found here.