Thursday, October 15, 2009

9 month cycle thoughts

Back in Aug 08, i was calling for a 9 month cycle bottom in Sep-Oct 08 timeframe which turned out to be hugely sucessfull call, both in terms of time and price. The next cycle bottom, which i was looking for in July-Aug 09 came in the proper time window, but turned out be non-event in terms of price. I was looking for a break of March 09 lows for the cycle bottom during July. Far from it, it could not even touch the lower BB of the weekly which was around SPX 800 at that time. The strong rise out of the July bottom, made it clear that July was the 9 month cycle bottom, and the breakout above SPX 956 confirmed it. The next 9 month bottom is due in March-April 2010.

Now within the current 40 week cycle a.k.a the 9 month cycle, we have a 20 week cycle bottom due by the end of the November. How the price reacts into this time window will give us more clues as to the strength of the current uptrend. After the 20 week bottoms in November, the next rising 20 week cycle will be contending with the 9 month turning down from it's crest, which would mean a muted low volatile rise at best. The juicy part of the bull run maybe over.

For now, my LT indicator remains in the bull context, with the weekly, daily, hourly and every timeframe measurable trending up. I am on lookout for an opportunity to get short for the upcoming 20 week cyle lows.