Friday, April 29, 2011

Final bull market wave in progress

My April 11 call for a daily sell was good for 30 points, but it turned out to be a minor consolidation in the ongoing wave C, as opposed to test of 1249 which i was expecting (which i have noted in the charts).

I have a daily buy again at SPX 1332, which i could not update in a timely manner as i was on a vacation.

Here's a weekly chart of SPX from March 2009. Every new recovery highs in S&P on the weekly charts have been followed by a new high in the RSI. This is the first time since the rally begun in 2009 that a weekly RSI has started to negatively diverge with the price. That's a wave 5 or a wave C phenomenon, not a wave 3 phenomenon as some analysts who have been labelling it. Now the burden of proof lies on the RSI to prove that it's a wave 3 and not a terminal wave of the bull market. If RSI does make a new high in this leg, then the bears will have to go to hibernation, not for months, but for more than year. It's a historic juncture for sure. Since we are talking about weekly charts here, this current rally may continue for a few more weeks before topping out.

If we get a daily sell signal at any point now and a strong selloff, it would leave a nasty diveregent top on the weekly charts. It would also produce a daily/weekly combo sell. Now i have no clue whether that will happen or not. It's just a hypothesis at this point. So i call it a wave C and a terminal wave of this bull market. No Ifs and buts. Now i ask the weekly RSI to prove me wrong.

Now as for the ST, SPX is on a buy-the-dips mode and i would keep playing only the long side until the daily issues a sell.

I will post the next daily turn in real-time here, as it could turn out to be a very important one.