Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Daily buy signal - June 21, 2011

My system gave a buy signal today on SPX at 1293. Weekly remains on a sell.

Now here's the big question. Is this just a dead cat bounce before the 1249 levels get taken out ? Only if the market characteristic has changed. Recall during this entire bull market from March 2009, every time a daily sell was generated and the market got oversold, it was time to buy. Bears who used to take the sell signals on the daily charts used to get clobbered. In other words the daily sell signal and oversold conditions in the market was a accumulation point for the big money. If we have entered a bear trend, then that characteristic would reverse. That is, every overbought condition with a daily buy signal would be used as a distribution point by the big money or in other words a daily buy signal would mark a top instead of creating a buy-the-dips context.

But given that the 1249 level is intact, the bull market remains intact for now. So i would give the benefit of doubt to the bulls here. But to avoid the trap i mentioned above, in case the market character has changed, i would avoid any breakout type of trades and focus on buying only the dips.