Sunday, January 31, 2010

9 month cycle thoughts

On Dec 23 i wrote,


The current e-wave structure displays a potential triple zig-zag, with two upside targets - SPX 1168 (c=a) and SPX 1215(c=1.618*a). The crest of this last 20-week cycle (of the current 9 month cycle) is due end of January 2010, which is where i expect this market to complete it's e-wave formation. After that, it gets bearish as we plunge into the 9 month cycle bottom sometime in mid-March 2010.

Well, we undershot the time target by a week and price target by about 18 points. As i posted here, break of SPX 1131 pivot was the get-out-of-longs signal. The next 9 month bottom is due mid-March. There should be cyclical pressure until that general timeframe. Of course we will zig-zag up and down into that March bottom. Currently i don't have a technical projection. We need a countertrend bounce after which targets can be arrived at. But an educated guess would be the key weekly pivot at SPX 1030.

The entire web is now buzz with the "End of bear market rally" theme. If the next 9 month cycle low comes above the July 2009 lows, which will maintain the bullish cyclical structure, then another high in the SPX is almost certain. It's too early to have an opinion on that. Will update it when the appropriate time comes.

Good luck !