Wednesday, April 11, 2007

8 hours of bearish excitement

May last another couple of hours tommorow morning biggrin.gif

As i commented in my blog last, the market looked tired as we approached 1448 and a reaction looked inevitable. My downside targets for the move was SPX 1428-30 (ES 1438-40). I will refine it to SPX 1430-32, which should be tagged tommorow morning.

ES 1440-42 is a key area, which should provide support. If this area is breached, then lower targets like ES 1428-30 will come into play. Need more clues in the form of price action tommorow to determine if that's the case.

In any case, the next move of consequence should be a move to a new recovery highs on the SPX.

Monday, April 09, 2007

VST top

If i wanted fame, i would have made a dramatic call that the next 100 points on SPX will be down or this top will not be seen in my lifetime. But i am a trader and i want money :-)

I do not see anything that suggests a major top is in place. But that does not preclude any non-linear drops, which i can't predict with any TA methods. Last time i made a projection was when SPX was trading near 1416. I had a preliminary projection to around SPX 1455-1460. I have to refine those targets now to yesterday's high at 1448.10. Good enough for government work.

The smart money OEX folks were loading up on puts with OEX P/C ratio hitting intraday highs of 3.81. The not-so-smart equity folks were loading up on calls like there's no tommorow. So i am expecting sometime of reaction to the downside over the next couple of days.

At a minimum we have a swing top in place on the hourly charts based on my work. The next move should take us to ES 1438-40 (SPX 1428-30). After this breif reaction, the uptrend should continue.....