OIL
Buy 12/24/2009
Long USO 38.20 stop 35.22
No change from last week
Dollar
Countertrend buy
No change from last week. Looking for a sell signal this week
Gold
Countertrend sell
No change from last week. Looking for a buy signal this week
Bonds
10 year yields on a buy signal since 11/30
No change from last week
Disclaimer: All signals are experimental and for entertainment purposes only.
One of the readers question was whether the entry is based on week ending price or opening price next week. For intermediate term positions, it's irrelavent, unless the next week opening happens to be a massive gap-up. But then, many a time, it also gaps-down offering better entry price. I tracks these signals based on end of week closing price basis. To be fair, i will try to post these signals 15 minutes before the closing, end of week, if time permits and does not interfere with my trading activity.
These weekly signals will not be published for the SPX, as the stock market is an entirely different beast, which i will continue to anlalyze seperately. There is no change in SPX outlook. We remain in a daily uptrend from the Dubai lows, pullbacks on hourly charts aside.
Friday, January 01, 2010
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Dammit, is it a buy, sell or hold ?
After reading newsletters for many many years, i finally threw up my arms in frustration in 2000, when i started developing my own systems.
A typical newsletter writer's recommendation goes like this "While the dollar index is in a major bottoming formation with overwhelming bearish sentiment, we should be on look out for a buy. But i don't rule out another low sometime next week. Although given the current configuration, a low may not be required and we could just bust out of the gates. A move here can be explosive, but the declining long term moving averages can put pressure on any upmove. The LT direction remains down and so does the ST, but the ST is on the verge of moving up. Caution is urged for shorts. Any move below xx.xx will mean the downtrend continues. Any sustained move above xx.xx would mean the trend has turned up"
My silent response has always been, "Dammit why don't you just tell me if the move is trend or countertrend, and is it a buy or sell. If it's a buy/sell where should be my stop ?". My system development efforts over the years have been focussed on these three things. Although my focus has always been on ST trading on S&P, i have been trying to develop some systems to trade the intermediate term moves on various sectors/commodities. I have posted some random signals on this blog over the years on Dollar, Gold and Bonds, but not on a consistent basis to track their long term performance. I have done some significant work this year, spending countless hours backtetsting them, which looks promising. But then, everything looks promising during the backtesting. The proof of the pudding lies in the real-time testing.
I will post all the signals from my system, during 2010 on Gold, Oil, Bonds and Dollar. All signals will be end-of-week basis. The signals will be based on weekly charts and for multi-month intermediate term moves. Countertrend moves will not be traded.
OIL
Buy 12/24/2009
Long USO 38.20 stop 35.22
Dollar
Countertrend buy
Gold
Countertrend sell
Bonds
10 year yields on a buy signal since 11/30
Disclaimer: All signals are experimental and for entertainment purposes only.
A typical newsletter writer's recommendation goes like this "While the dollar index is in a major bottoming formation with overwhelming bearish sentiment, we should be on look out for a buy. But i don't rule out another low sometime next week. Although given the current configuration, a low may not be required and we could just bust out of the gates. A move here can be explosive, but the declining long term moving averages can put pressure on any upmove. The LT direction remains down and so does the ST, but the ST is on the verge of moving up. Caution is urged for shorts. Any move below xx.xx will mean the downtrend continues. Any sustained move above xx.xx would mean the trend has turned up"
My silent response has always been, "Dammit why don't you just tell me if the move is trend or countertrend, and is it a buy or sell. If it's a buy/sell where should be my stop ?". My system development efforts over the years have been focussed on these three things. Although my focus has always been on ST trading on S&P, i have been trying to develop some systems to trade the intermediate term moves on various sectors/commodities. I have posted some random signals on this blog over the years on Dollar, Gold and Bonds, but not on a consistent basis to track their long term performance. I have done some significant work this year, spending countless hours backtetsting them, which looks promising. But then, everything looks promising during the backtesting. The proof of the pudding lies in the real-time testing.
I will post all the signals from my system, during 2010 on Gold, Oil, Bonds and Dollar. All signals will be end-of-week basis. The signals will be based on weekly charts and for multi-month intermediate term moves. Countertrend moves will not be traded.
OIL
Buy 12/24/2009
Long USO 38.20 stop 35.22
Dollar
Countertrend buy
Gold
Countertrend sell
Bonds
10 year yields on a buy signal since 11/30
Disclaimer: All signals are experimental and for entertainment purposes only.
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