Monday, September 07, 2009

LT update

In my last update, i posted my LT indicator along with a time-momentum model which was supposed to have expired after 24 weeks. Well, we topped out after 25 weeks (+/-1week tolerance). But the bad news for bears is my LT indicator turned above the zero line, switching us into a bull context.

Now what this indicator says is that we are in a bull context. So buy any weekly oversold condition going forward, as long as the indicator stays above zero.

Well, one could argue that the move above zero was a headfake. But the onus of proving that is now on the bears. So to get any bear case going here, we need to turn that indicator back below zero again. Unless the bulls can really build some strong momentum here, it does not take much to pull this indicator back below zero again. The Weekly RSI(10) turned down below 70 indicating ST to IT term weakness. If the weakness materializes into a big selloff, then odds are my LT indicator will turn below zero again.

So the million dollar question here is "Will my LT indicator stay above zero when the next weekly oversold condition materializes ?". I will be watching with interest.