Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Why this is not 1998 ?

There's been comparisons of this rally to the 1998 rally. Both the rallies started after scary decline into Oct lows and a strong reversal from there.

Look at the position of the MACD during 1998. Weekly MACD made a new high during April 1998 which clearly suggested that new price highs will come down the line. Once the MACD peaked in Jan 99, we started seeing a series of higher highs in price and lower highs in momentum.The present MACD configuration looks eerily similar to 2000 April rather than 98.

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

SPX daily - 11/23/05 - Breakout or Breakdown imminent

If we break above that hourly channel, that's gonna be a massive breakout. If this is a genuine trending move, this is what we should expect. Typically wave 3 of 3 starts from these kind of setups. The daily CCI is still comfortably high above 100.

On the other hand, if we are in a range bound enviroment, what better chance to short, right at the top of the channel ?I don't know at this point which one's true. So will wait for the market to answer.

Monday, November 21, 2005

Updated E-wave count for SPX

After much analysis, examining the relationships betwen the different waves in the wedge, i have come to the conclusion that what is transpiring here is not a wedge, but a double zig-zag from march 03. Ending diagonals have specific relationship between waves i.e wave C=.618*wave A and wave E = .618 * wave C. Not only do we not see this relationship here in the wedge (which has become a popular count among the e-wavers), but also the current structure from the Oct 05 bottom is looking pretty darn impulsive. Based on this new wave count, there are two potential targets for wave C (1254 and 1308). This wave C should conclude the first leg of the Bull market from the March 03 bottom, leading to a large decline into 2006 and 2007.