Thursday, February 23, 2006

Yellow Flag

The lack of follow thru today, has put the SPX in a vulnerable position. We could push towards another marginal high, before the correction sets in, although not gauranteed. SPX 1286 is the ket pivot now. If 1286 gets taken out, it would start turning the hourly trend down and 1282 will be the next support. If we break below 1281, it would almost gaurantee a larger degree correction and push the daily trend back down again. From a momentum perspective, that would also generate a triple divergence sell signal on my MACD, which could be nasty.

Bottomline, the hourly and daily trend are still up, but vulnerable to a bear raid. Unless we see a strong upside day tommorow, the odds that a correction will set in here, is very high.

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Again the buy signal from 2/14/06 remains in full force. There's a lot of disbeleif in the rally, while the price continues to march higher. The hourly, daily, weekly are all on buy. NDX was the laggard, which sprung to life today. A lot of shorting and disbeleif in the rally is focussed on the expected 4-year cycle bottom this fall. Instead of playing what is offered today, many traders are focussing on what could happen 6 months from now.

A lot of advisors were convinced that the 4-year cycle top was in. Today the SPX was half a point shy of making new recovery highs. The bearish sentiment backdrop suggests that the rally has much higher to go. Bottom line, the daily is on a buy and i will continue to buy the dips.

Just a general comment on the liquidity situation. Look at the POMOs (Permanent Open Market Operations). That's permanent money coming into the system and keeps rotating thru the system, with the multiplier effect, magnifies the money supply. I can't emphasize the importance of it. I thought Jan was a blockbuster POMO month, but Feb is not way behind. The same excess liquidity can also be seen very clearly on the NYSE cumulative weekly A/D line, as far as the flows into the stock market are concerned.