Monday, August 02, 2010

9 month cycle thoughts

On July 28, i wrote

If today's lows gets taken out, then it would generate a sell with a projection to about SPX 1080-85. I don't see any projections beyond that, at this point.

We acheived that projection. But the trendicator moved from a sell to a outright buy today, without a CIT warning, in a shock and awe style upmove.

We have a 9 month cycle bottom which is due in late Oct - early Nov 2010. Every 9 month cycle bottom after the Oct 08 bottom have made higher lows signifying a cyclical uptrend in prices. In May 2010, we broke the 9 month lows of Feb 2010, and consequently the cyclical uptrend, which indicates that the next 9 month cycle low will potentially be a lower low.

The 9 month cycle crest is amibigous here. It's either the May 2010 top at 1173 (if the cycle was left translated) or the June 2010 top (ideal top) at 1131. Now we are 4 points away from the June 2010 top. Will it hold ? If it was a 9 month crest, it should reject prices strongly here. If not, it would confirm that May 2010 was indeed the 9 month crest and prices should move towards there for a retest and then fail there for a downmove into the 9 mont bottom due late Oct.

If SPX 1173 gets taken out, then the bearish case is over. That would mean a extremely right translated 9 month cycle and the implications are ultra-bullish.

The trendicator is on a buy. So we are back to buy-the-dips mode. But keep an eye on the 1131 and 1173 resistances and watch how the price reacts there. If we see volatile back and forth action below the resistances, then it's a clue that a potential top is getting built.

Good luck !