Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Why this is not 1998 ?




















There's been comparisons of this rally to the 1998 rally. Both the rallies started after scary decline into Oct lows and a strong reversal from there.

Look at the position of the MACD during 1998. Weekly MACD made a new high during April 1998 which clearly suggested that new price highs will come down the line. Once the MACD peaked in Jan 99, we started seeing a series of higher highs in price and lower highs in momentum.The present MACD configuration looks eerily similar to 2000 April rather than 98.

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