Commodity complex on fire !

The entire commodity complex and the 10-year yields are on fire. If one thinks that the Fed is done, as portrayed by the media, i think they must be smoking something really heavanly. I think a 50bp hike in May is now becoming more of a reality, if this commodity meltup is to be contained. Now if the stock market were to discount that hike before that actaully happens, then we should see a serious drop in the markets before the Fed meeting. At least, that's the conceptual framework from which i am operating. Now whether that drop comes from higher levels or right from here is not clear at this point. The daily momentum indicators are still on a momentum buy. I am still waiting for a sell signal from my system. Until i get that signal, i will avoid swing trading and continue to trade the hourly charts in both directions. In the VST though, i expect a gap-down tommorow morning and a swift selloff. And then the OPEX circus should continue for the next 2 days. Overall i am bearish now and i expect the NYSE summation index to make a trip to the zero line or undershoot it, while the NYSE MCO puts in a divergent bottom, before any meaningful rally resumes.