Big whipsaw days

Today caught me by surprise. I was expecting that ES 1391-1394 would offer serious resistance, to be followed another leg down. Instead the market displayed some unusual strength and as soon as 1395 was taken out, i knew that the gap at 1403 would be the magnet. Got stopped out for 5 points loss. These kind of multi swing action is typical at the tops/bottoms and is a harbinger of trend change to come. I think it was George Soros who said the market becomes choppier at the turning points. These kind of moves are bull-bear tug of wars at turning points, which eventually results in range expansion and a change in trend. I am still of the opinion that the top has been seen. There's a remote chance that we could do a marginal spike to 1415-20 and then breakdown. That is low odds at this point.

As for the larger picture, take a look at the chart.

Look at the MACD indicator (my custom MACD), which did not produce one single sell all the way from the bottom to 1388. That is why i was bullish all the way up to 1388!

I hope you remember my call on 10/26, where i called for a decline to ES 1367, which was precisely hit. That was the primary sell. Then we made a secondary top on 11/22, which produced that selloff off of that terminal, which i again called last Sunday. Note the huge divergences betwen 10/26 and 11/22. It's not just the divergences i am trading on, but i do have a momentum break on the daily as well. And then the internals - Nasdaq MCO took out the Nov low and the nasdaq summation is now pointed down. NYSE summation was also pointed down yesterday, which recovered today as the MCO made it's trip to the zero line. Last but not the least, if we close below 1377 SPX, i will also have a weekly sell signal. When the daily and weekly combo goes on a sell, then you can be assured that the IT top has been seen.