Monday, April 09, 2007

VST top

If i wanted fame, i would have made a dramatic call that the next 100 points on SPX will be down or this top will not be seen in my lifetime. But i am a trader and i want money :-)

I do not see anything that suggests a major top is in place. But that does not preclude any non-linear drops, which i can't predict with any TA methods. Last time i made a projection was when SPX was trading near 1416. I had a preliminary projection to around SPX 1455-1460. I have to refine those targets now to yesterday's high at 1448.10. Good enough for government work.

The smart money OEX folks were loading up on puts with OEX P/C ratio hitting intraday highs of 3.81. The not-so-smart equity folks were loading up on calls like there's no tommorow. So i am expecting sometime of reaction to the downside over the next couple of days.

At a minimum we have a swing top in place on the hourly charts based on my work. The next move should take us to ES 1438-40 (SPX 1428-30). After this breif reaction, the uptrend should continue.....

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