Thursday, June 21, 2007

I don't quite trust this decline !






Last time i commented, i expected a deeper correction and a trip to zero line on the NYSE MCO. Although i expected this decline, the decline on SPX in particular went faster and deeper than i expected. My 120-min did went into a sell this morning and is in a oversold condition right now.

Take a look at the NDX and SPX charts above.

The daily range on the SPX today was nearly 25 points and the daily range on NDX was a mere 26 points. In percentage terms, SPX had nearly twice the range as NDX. What the heck is going on ?

Look at the MACD on SPX and NDX - SPX had a backkiss, while the NDX still remains on a buy. Again what the heck is going on ?

Also remember the CCI on SPX never reached a overbought condition before turning down and is now right near the zero line support. I don't trust at this point that this is the beginning of the next leg down. This should end up as a short term pullback. The next expectation should be new recovery highs on the SPX.

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