I am no cycle expert and the only cycle that i follow is the 9 month cycle. The last wave B bottom in June 2006 was a 9 month cycle bottom off of which this wave C impulse began, based on my phasing. Given that we have seen the largest monthly candle since the rally begun in 2003, it is safe to conclude that Phase I of the bull (A-B-C) is now complete. What follows the wave C is the wave X, in a complex correction. March 2007 was the second 9 month cycle bottom since June 2006, when we concluded the mini-panic. The next 9 month cycle is ideally due around Dec 2007.
If my count is right, we should find a good traedable bottom soemtime this week or early next week in the SPX 1360-1390 area, which should conclude wave A of X and begin a wave B of X bounce. Wave B of X bounce should consume roughly 10 weeks into late Oct 2007 and then a wave C of X decline into Dec 2007, which should conclude in the SPX 1320-1330 area (near the wave b channel top). Once the wave X concludes, we should begin another multi-year advance into 2009 (phase II of bull market).
In case we go straight up from here and take out the July highs on SPX, then it means that wave X already bottomed and phase II of bull has already begun. That would also mean my 9 month cycle phasing is wrong. It will be interesting next few months....
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1 comment:
Nav
Do you think that today was the low and reversal you talked about? And do you now think it will go to the July highs in October?
Jim
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