Bullish argument is different and bullish cheerleading and talking positions that happen on message boards are different. Once a weekly buy gets generated, we don't go to the sky directly, like many to-da-moon theorists opine. There are many hiccups on the way and some very scary. Markets are perverse. The first buy on any timeframe generally resolves in the opposite direction. It's for a simple reason, cuz every amateur joe is aware of that and every guru and newsletter writers keep pounding on those facts. That's what causes the amateur traders to come and regurgitate some popular guru opinion on message boards. Now guess what the pros do. They fade that common perception, instill fear by scary selloff, get everyone lean on the wrong side, make them disbeleive their gurus, and then take off.
What's the trade for a ST swing trader (houry swing trader) here ? - IMO it's a unwavering short
Before i proceed, i just want to say that i will not be posting any of my VST stuff on this blog. It's hard for me to continually update this blog during the trading day. Those interested in my VST stuff or trades, i will be posting them on traders-talk.com. My orginal intention was to only post IT and LT thoughts on this blog, and i will stick with that.
So the selloff came like a clockwork. What's next ? I see two possible wave counts at this juncture. Those who make fun of alternate counts firstly don't understand the basic principle of TA, which is probabilistic prediction of future prices. The primary wavecount is that wave c of an irregular flat ended on friday and we take off on Monday without looking back. The only fly in the ointment is that we broke that channel on an hourly closing basis on Friday, which makes me wonder if the market wants to probe lower levels ( SPX 1420), which is my alternate count. Which one ? At this point, i have no idea. We'll know the answers on Monday.
If the primary count is true, we are headed to SPX 1560 for the wave C up. If the alternate count is true, the price projection for wave C would be around 1530. Timewise, i am looking for mid-october for this price projection.
Goog luck trading everyone !
3 comments:
for an irregular flat the 'a' wave must unfold as a three wave move, but the 'a' wave in your chart is clearly a 5 wave impulse. so your count violates a basic tenet of e-wave.
Anomymous,
I thought about that. If you think that was an impulse, then the impulse should have been a wave 1 of something. The subsequent action from 8/28 - 9/4 took out the impulse high, whihc means it cannot be wave 2. So, what would you qualify that action from 8/28 - 9/4 as ??
If you are asking for my take, that was not an impulse. It looks like an impulse, but in reality it's a A-B-C-X-A-B-C. The X is not visible becuase of the gap-down. Neely calls that as hidden waves. The post price action after the wave A confirms that.
With me ?
You may be right about the hidden wave due to the gap down. I checked the 24-hour globex chart and it could possibly be counted as an double three. The other possibility is that it was the C wave of an expanded flat and that the rally from that low wave a wave 1 with the current pullback being wave 2.
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