Sunday, April 20, 2008

IT update

In my last update on April 12, i called for an upside target of SPX 1400-1420. I was expecting that target to be tagged in about 2 weeks. But it all happened bloody fast, if you were a bear !. Too far...too fast. Again, feels good to be a technical analyst.

So far there are no technical indications of a top yet. I did get a VST sell at the close on Friday. So expect some weakness come Monday. I don't have any projections for the selloff yet. All big selloffs start with a VST sell. But all VST sells do not necessarily lead to big selloffs.

To call 4/18 as a top, a couple of things need to happen. Firstly the rising NYSE MCOs should hook down and price needs to break below SPX 1357. That selloff should be of a high velocity type. That would be an early indication of the top. Barring that i would still expect the higher end of my projected range which is 1420 to get tagged in the coming days.

Bottomline, hourly is on a sell. Play for what it's worth. Daily uptrend remains intact for now. No need to overanalyze here.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

My analysis is looking for a 7 spx sell-off early and then a strong rebound into mid session to around 1416/17 forming the final 5th wave of this series since April 15.

The Gann 16 day cycle is maxing out Monday to +4 or day 20 and we have a full moon reversal coming.

Negative astro aspects later this week sees the market down to at least 1358 I would think, which is wave 2 of C and possibly 1324 mid week next week.

Minimum of a-b-c decline off this top to May 8-9 with possible 5 wave into May 15.