Heading into the 9 month crest

In my Feb 7 update,i wrote,


From a ST timing perspective (daily charts), the current momentum has about 2-3 days of rally power left. If that rally tags SPX 880-900 area, i will be looking to short that area. Or if we breakdown from here and take out SPX 840, then i will be shorting into weakness.


We topped 2 trading days after my update. Now we have broken SPX 800. On one hand while that looks bearish, on the other hand we have the 9 month cycle heading into the crest. So it's not going to be a straight-down kind of an affair here, i am afraid. Rather i would expect some kind of a sharp bounce here, another bear-flush-out rally, as we head into the 9 month cycle top, which i am expecting around mid-March. I still beleive that this top would hold below the Jan 09 highs.

Once the 9 month cycle crests, then it's down all the way into the fall. Cyclicaly and from structural perspective, not to memntion the trend, the market looks very bearish heading into the fall this year. Trade safe.

Bottomline, i am expecting some kind of a sharp bounce here over the next 1-2 weeks before the big kahuna bear resumes with full force. VST bullish. ST - IT bearish.

Happy Trading !