Well, it would be foolish to say that nothing changed since my last update on 3/9/09. The hourly which has been downtrending since 2/9 has now started uptrending. Since we have not had any meaningful pullback since this bounce started on 3/6, it's hard to come up with upside targets for this move at this point. But clearly the big resistance is around SPX 780.
The ST and IT trends are unambigously down. Many claim that we seen an IT or a LT bottom here. But those are just claims, until proven right by the market. I did not see any bottoming action based on my indicators on 3/6. A high volatile move suddenly morphing into a low volatile bottom is not something typical. Had the market put a high volatile wide range reversal bars, leaving most behind, then it would been a signature of a long lasting bottom. But this bottom seemed to accomodate everyone !
Let's first get the daily (ST) uptrending and then we can discuss about the IT. If SPX takes out 780, then the ST(daily) would start uptrending, suggesting that the market has legs. But for a ST or IT trader the trend remains down and shorting seems to be the safer, high odds bet (until 780 is taken out).
This week's market action should provide more clues. Will post an update next week.
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