I am not arguing here. But just posting the same chart i have been posting for years. The indicator i have shown in the chart has called most bull/bear markets of last few decades. While pundits are arguing about the beginning of a new bull market, peppered with their usual caveats and equivocations, it always makes me wonder if these folks have the tools necessary to call bull/bear markets with conviction and objectivity !. Now why the anxiety ? If it's a bull market it's not going to end after a 5 month rally. It will last a few years. So i will wait patiently until my indicator crosses the zero line.
I need to see three things to happen before calling a new bull market.
1) My indicator crossing the zero line (has not yet happened). Ideally for strong odds this indicator need to start with divergences, although not strictly necessary.
2) Weekly uptrending (we are currently uptrending on the weekly)
3) Potentially completed wave pattern (optional)
We are pressing against the weekly BB on the SPX, which is usually the area where we get IT sells. As for the ST, the daily RSI is cautioning a sell approaching. We got close to a ST sell last week, but the setup got busted after the jobs report. We may get that ST selloff starting anytime next week. NDX not making a new recovery high with the SPX on friday was another warning shot. Not to mention that the emerging markets like India and China are already showing cracks. We may get a hourly/daily combo sell on the SPX sometime next week, with a possibility of that being a IT top as well. Stay tuned....
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