Sunday, January 24, 2010

Weekly trends - 1/22/2009

Weekly trends

OIL
Buy 12/24/2009
USO 38.20 stop 35.22

Pullback in a weekly uptrend. But, remains on a buy signal.


Dollar Index
Sell 1/15/2010 USD 77.36 stop 78.78 - Stopped out.

The sell signal on Dollar got violated this week by a break above 78.77. I still beleive this week's dollar surge was a wave c of an a-b-c correction, rather than a beginning of a major leg higher. My system is neutral on dollar right now.

Gold
Buy 1/8/2010
GLD 111.37 stop 105.30

No change from last week. But the buy signal is on a very slippery slope right now.

Bonds
10 year yields on a buy signal since 11/30
It's now in a retracement in an uptrend

Disclaimer: All signals are experimental and for entertainment purposes only.

SPX

The dollar surge last week unleashed some violence in many markets. SPX failed to acheive the measured move objective at SPX 1165. 1150 was all she wrote. Violation of SPX 1131 pivot was a close-all-longs signal. Since the SPX has broken the 1131 pivot, the selloff has been very steep without generating any continuation sell or even counter-trend buy signals on the hourly charts. The Key 20-week low pivot at 1085 held this week. If it holds and we generate a buy signal next week, then the ST selloff is over. If SPX 1085 cracks for any reason even by a tick, then the selloff will morph into an intermediate sell, with the next support coming at the weekly pivot at SPX 1030. The coming week should provide more clues....

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

1/27/10

Early Bird:
ESH10:
This pattern is our KEY intermediate pattern (60 to 120 days)
Due to the fact that clearly taking out 1050.50 confirms the correction and in addition it opens the door for a trend reversal.

RCT (from 10/20/09)
Time expectation: 86 days from 10/20/09, today is the 67th day.
Neutral
Equalizer: 1050.50
Up Price Target: 1180.25
Down Price Target: 920.75

Immediate to short term:
We’re heading immediately down to 1072.00
Before the decline we should reach 1092.75 to 1093.50
Not reaching 1093.25 to 1093.50 is immediately bearish.
I’m not expecting a profound bounce at 1072.00,
In fact the opposite
It should continue down to 1067.25
At 1067.25 we have a possibility for a profound bounce
The compression percentages say we have a 30% chance to profoundly bounce at 1067.25
Failure to profoundly bounce at 1067.25
means we’re continuing down to 1062.00
the percentages are 90% we profoundly bounce at 1062.00
but there is a catch.
clearly below 1061.00 the bottom falls out.
We have a very serious compression hole
The hole begins at 1061.00 and ends at 1038.00

Therefore on this potential decline 1061.00 to 1062.00 is bounce or break time.

Regarding the decline:
Below 1084.25 moves the door handle
Below 1082.00 opens the door
Below 1080.50 we’ve entered the decline room

This decline potentially is different than the previous decline from 1148.00
Potentially it doesn’t stop until MAYBE 1018.00
Below 1018.00 within 3 minutes we’re at 976.50


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