Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Tommorow - Beware of the tactical play

Assuming that we did a wave A yesteday and today's rally was a wave B, then the most obvious way this decline should start is that wave B will either top below yesterday's high or double top at yesterday's high and then do a wave C selloff. What concerns me here is everyone is aware of that pattern and this is what the technical traders are expecting.

What would fool everyone is a tactical play here. There are two ways to do that...

1) Expanded Flat - Wave B will make new highs and then a violent wave C down which will bottom below wave A.

2) Running correction or a irregular flat - Wave B will continue this choppy advance way higher than most shorts would want to be comfortable with and then a wave C decline down which will bottom above today's low.

Both these scenarios can confuse the heck out of everyone. If we make new recovery highs tommorow, then i will start looking to go long on any decline, instead of looking for shorts anymore.

No comments: