My expectation over the last few days has been for a move up to SPX 1320 cash and then a move to 1290. The reason i expect 1320-23 is because that's where the weekly resistance bands passes. Generally markets love to kiss those bands before they make a big move. Given all the hesitation and the overlapping action over the last few days, my best guess is that the uncertainity will resolve down towards the 1290 area. The NYSE summation index would also have completed a trip to the zero line by then.
Markets can always throw a curve ball. If for any reason we get a daily close above SPX 1320 then this scenario is wrong and i will have to turn neutral and reasses the situation. Will the market hit the 1320 resistance band ?. I am not completely certain. There's always a possibility of a failure below that level. This is one heck of a nervous market, until the Fed meeting is done with. Bottomline, any sell on 30-min tommorow will get me aggresively short.
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