I had said i would update if there's any change in the trend resumption scenario. As i said in my last post, we resumed the trend upwards, but today we had a momentum failure near the highs. Momentum failure in itself is not a sell signal. It can just cause a high level consolidation before the move up. But when some key EMAs crossover along with momentum sell, it suggests that the correction can be something more than just high level consolidation.
For instance, today we not only had a momentum failure but the 3/13 ema pair on 30-min crossed over as well. That suggested that the downmove was going to be something more than just a high level consolidation. Even that EMA crossover is not an indicator of trend change until we make lower lows on the price. So if one is shorting against the trend, as i said in one of my posts 2 days back, either the DTL or the pivot has to be honored. In this case the pivot is at 1211 and any move above that is a signal to reverse long. If one is a miser on the stops, they could even get out on DTL break on a closing basis or a 3/13 crossover back above. I use pivots to reverse my position though. At the close the 3/13 was in a backkiss configuration on the 30-min charts. Now the big money folks can easily perform a crossover with a gap-up. But will they ?
Bottomline, aggresive traders can go short with the above mentioned precautions, using the preliminary sell. Others can close longs and stay in cash until SPX 1211 is recaptured.
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They can and probably will. Non Farm Payrolls and Initial/Continuing Claims my friend. Goldie Lacks, I mean Sachs, gets the numbers before the govt even knows them. We made a perfect head/shoulders Friday into Monday afternoon and "goldie" and company bought the market right back over the neckline, and nearly to new highs. So they can handle this if they wish. UE numbers are always sort of a lose-lose for stocks though, except for the monthly data end of March--but that pump was needed for the greedy banks to shrewdly sell into strength at higher prices. 8:30 tells all. commodities cant seem to find footing on UE numbers days, so that takes one weapon out of the arsenol. The financials, another main weapon, well just look at that Goldman chart, lol. My bet is every technology and healthcare stock known to man gets upgraded along with some "sector-wide" calls too. oh wait! they already pulled that yesterday w/healthcare, haha. Tech is up today. crApple goin to $988 by lunch
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